⭑ Pro Tier · Paid · Consultant Assessment

Social Impact Logic Model Report

Tāmaki Community Futures Trust — Tāmaki Youth Employment Pathways Programme

Prepared by Jez Kiriau, Director — Seek2Harvest Solutions — on behalf of Tāmaki Community Futures Trust

Report Generated

26 May 2026

Reporting Period

Jan – Dec 2025

Depth

Pro · Full Logic Model · SROI · SIA Readiness

CBAx Data Version

NZ Treasury Nov 2025

Confidentiality

Auckland City Council · Restricted Distribution

Executive Summary Pro

Tāmaki Community Futures Trust delivers the Tāmaki Youth Employment Pathways Programme across the Tāmaki regeneration area in east Auckland — one of Tāmaki Makaurau's highest-need communities by multiple deprivation indices. The programme works with rangatahi aged 16–24 who are not in employment, education, or training (NEET), providing integrated vocational coaching, trade skills certification, employer connections, and whānau support over a 26-week intensive engagement model.

In 2025, the programme supported 94 rangatahi, achieved a 67% employment or study placement rate at six-month follow-up, and generated an estimated social return of $3.85 for every $1 invested, based on NZ Treasury CBAx proxy values. The programme demonstrates strong outcomes focus and improving evidence quality, with IDI data readiness identified as the primary gap to full Social Investment Agency eligibility. This report is prepared using Wellspring Pro by Seek2Harvest Solutions.

Theory of Change Pro

Problem Statement

Rangatahi in Tāmaki face compounding barriers to employment and economic participation — including low educational attainment, limited professional networks, housing instability, and the ongoing displacement effects of the Tāmaki regeneration programme. Existing employment services are not designed to address these intersecting barriers or to engage young people who have had negative experiences with formal systems.

Change Mechanism

By meeting rangatahi where they are — through trusted community relationships, kaupapa Māori and Pacific practice, and practical skills — the Trust creates the conditions for young people to move from disengagement to sustained economic participation. Whānau integration ensures that progress is supported beyond the programme boundary.

Long-Term Vision

Tāmaki rangatahi who are economically active, connected to their identity, and contributing to a thriving, self-determining community — with reduced systemic reliance on welfare and justice services across generations.

Underpinning Assumptions

Rangatahi disengage from services because of past harm — trust-building is not a soft activity; it is the precondition for all other outcomes

Employment alone is not a durable outcome — identity, confidence, and social connection are required for sustained economic participation

Whānau are both a protective factor and a site of positive secondary impact — investing in the participant invests in the household

The Tāmaki regeneration context creates ongoing displacement stress that must be actively addressed, not assumed to be resolved

SROI Analysis — NZ Treasury CBAx Values Pro

SROI Ratio

$3.85

per $1 invested

Total Investment

$217,500

Financial + in-kind

Total Social Value

$837,375

CBAx-weighted outcomes

Outcome	Participants	Attribution	CBAx Proxy	Deadweight	Social Value
Sustained employment (6+ months)	47	80%	$6,400/person	22%	$236,314
Entry into tertiary / trades training	16	75%	$8,200/person	18%	$80,844
Reduced benefit dependency	38	65%	$3,900/person	30%	$67,431
Improved mental wellbeing (K10)	72	70%	$2,800/person	20%	$112,896
Reduced justice system contact	19	55%	$9,100/person	25%	$71,564
Whānau connection & cultural identity	94	—	$0 (qualitative)	—	Not monetised
Total Social Value					$569,049

Note: Total investment figure ($217,500) includes council contestable grant ($145,000), Oranga Tamariki contract ($52,500), and in-kind contributions ($20,000). SROI ratio is calculated on total social value against total investment. CBAx proxy values sourced from NZ Treasury November 2025 workbook.

Conservative (−25%)

$2.89:1

$626,531 social value

Central Estimate

$3.85:1

$837,375 social value

Optimistic (+20%)

$4.62:1

$1,004,850 social value

Unintended Consequences Analysis Pro

✓ Positive — Unexpected

Employer network activation: Several employer partners have begun proactively reaching out to the Trust for candidates beyond programme cohorts — creating an emerging talent pipeline that benefits other Auckland youth employment initiatives.

✓ Positive — Secondary

Whānau economic ripple: Participant income increases are observed to reduce household financial stress for siblings and parents, with reported secondary employment motivation in at least 14 households from the 2025 cohort.

⚠ Watch — Displacement Risk

Geographic job displacement: Some employer partnerships are based outside Tāmaki, requiring participants to travel or relocate — potentially disrupting the community rootedness the programme seeks to build.

⚠ Watch — Dependency

Programme reliance: 11% of 2025 completers re-engaged with the Trust for ongoing informal support beyond programme completion — suggesting the exit transition and peer-led sustainability model needs strengthening.

✗ Negative — Noted

Cohort peer stress: Group-based delivery has in some instances introduced peer conflict and social comparison stress, particularly where participants have significantly different employment outcomes within the same cohort.

✓ Positive — Systemic

Practice model influence: The Trust's approach has been referenced by two other Auckland providers as informing their own programme design — indicating a wider systems-level influence not captured in participant numbers.

Evidence Gap Mapping Pro

Outcome	Evidence Strength	Current Evidence Source	Gap & Recommended Action
Employment placement	Strong	Employer confirmation letters + 6-month follow-up calls (structured)	Consider MSD wage subsidy data match to verify independently — would shift this to Very Strong for SIA
Benefit reduction	Moderate	Participant self-report at 6 months; some MSD referral letters	IDI linkage to MSD benefit data is the priority action — would provide independent verification and longitudinal tracking
Mental wellbeing (K10)	Strong	Pre/post K10 administered at intake and programme completion	Add 12-month follow-up K10 to test durability of gains — current evidence shows improvement, not sustained improvement
Justice system contact	Emerging	Staff observation and some police liaison notes; no formal tracking	This outcome carries the highest CBAx proxy value — invest in formal tracking. IDI linkage to Police/Corrections data would substantially strengthen this claim
Whānau connection (cultural)	Moderate	Qualitative wānanga feedback and participant narratives (structured)	Deepen methodology — consider pūrākau (narrative) framework or Talanoa approach for Pacific participants. Document methodology for external review

Social Investment Agency Readiness Assessment Pro

Population Clarity

/ 100 · Strong

Target population well-defined: NEET rangatahi 16–24 in Tāmaki. Geographic and demographic clarity is strong. Could add IDI-linkable consent identifiers to enable longitudinal cohort tracking.

Outcomes Focus

/ 100 · Good

Clear outcomes cascade from activities. Multiple SIA-priority outcome areas addressed. Unintended consequences are honestly surfaced — a signal the SIA values highly.

Evidence Base

/ 100 · Developing

Strong self-reported evidence for employment and wellbeing outcomes. Justice system contact evidence is weak. Independent verification of key claims would materially strengthen this score.

Data & IDI Readiness

/ 100 · Early Stage

No current IDI linkage. Priority action: establish a consent framework for data sharing and initiate engagement with Stats NZ IDI access process through a research partner.

Overall SIA Readiness

64 / 100

Tāmaki Community Futures Trust is in a developing readiness position. The programme has clear strengths: defined population, honest consequence reporting, and good employment outcome evidence. The gap between current readiness and SIA eligibility is bridgeable within 12–18 months with targeted investment in IDI access and independent evaluation.

Strategic Recommendations

Initiate Stats NZ IDI access process as a priority — partner with a university or Crown research institute to apply for linked IDI data covering employment, benefit, and justice outcomes. This single action would lift the overall readiness score from 64 to approximately 76/100.

Formalise justice-system contact tracking — the justice outcome carries the highest CBAx proxy value in this report ($9,100/person) but the weakest evidence. Even a light-touch formal tracking system would significantly strengthen the SROI calculation and SIA credibility.

Develop a formal programme exit and transition framework — the dependency finding (11% re-engagement post-completion) is honest and important. Define what peer-led sustainability looks like for this community, measure against it, and build exit milestones into the programme design.

Commission a 12-month employment durability study — extend the current 6-month follow-up to 12 months for the 2025 cohort. This would be low-cost relative to impact and would produce the longitudinal evidence the SIA requires for serious investment consideration.

Funder-Ready Summary Pro

Plain-language summary · Copy-paste ready for grant applications and council reporting

Tāmaki Community Futures Trust runs a 26-week employment programme for young people in east Auckland who have disengaged from work and education. In 2025, 94 young people participated. Sixty-three were placed into employment or training within six months, and the programme generated an estimated $837,000 in social value against a total investment of $217,500 — a return of $3.85 for every dollar spent.

The programme works because it meets young people where they are — through trusted community relationships, practical skills, and whānau involvement — rather than expecting them to fit a standard employment service model. It is honest about what it doesn't yet know, including the long-term durability of outcomes and the role of community displacement in participant progress.

The Trust is ready for deeper engagement with the Social Investment Agency and for outcomes-based contracting. The primary development need is linked administrative data — a step the Trust is ready to pursue with the right research partner and funder support.

Specific Next Steps Pro

IDI access application Engage AUT or University of Auckland to co-apply for IDI linkage covering 2022–2025 cohorts. Establishes longitudinal baseline for SIA engagement. 3–6 month process.

Justice outcome tracking protocol Work with NZ Police community liaison to establish a light-touch formal tracking agreement for programme participants — no new data collection, just formal confirmation of existing informal information flows.

12-month employment follow-up (2025 cohort) Extend the existing 6-month call protocol with a 12-month check-in for the 47 participants in sustained employment. Low cost; high value for SIA evidence base and SROI durability.

Programme exit framework design Commission a co-design wānanga with 2024 and 2025 alumni to define what a successful transition out of the programme looks like — and build that into the 2026 delivery model.

Wellspring Standard — team rollout Onboard the Trust's programme team to Wellspring Standard for self-directed quarterly impact tracking — reduces reporting burden and builds an internal evidence culture ahead of SIA engagement.

Wellbeing Frameworks Applied Pro

He Ara Waiora Te Whare Tapa Whā NZ Living Standards Framework OECD Better Life Index Lalanga Fou NZ Treasury CBAx Kakala Research Framework

Whānau connection, cultural identity, and mana outcomes under He Ara Waiora, Te Whare Tapa Whā, Lalanga Fou, and Kakala have been reported qualitatively only. No cultural or relational values have been monetised. Seek2Harvest Solutions upholds this as a firm design principle of Wellspring — communities define what value means.

Assessment prepared by

Jez Kiriau — Director, Seek2Harvest Solutions

hello@seek2harvest.com · seek2harvest.com · Wellington & Auckland, Aotearoa NZ

This report has been prepared using Wellspring Pro on behalf of Tāmaki Community Futures Trust for presentation to Auckland City Council as part of the Wellspring Beta Tester Briefing (27 May 2026). All data is fictional and used for demonstration purposes only. SROI calculations use NZ Treasury CBAx proxy values (November 2025 version). This format is representative of what a funded organisation would receive upon completion of a Wellspring Pro engagement. Seek2Harvest Solutions recommends independent verification of all outcomes claims prior to SIA submission or formal funding applications.

This is a demonstration report using fictional data — Auckland City Council Beta Briefing, 27 May 2026.